2026 NFL Week 5 Graded Picks, ATS Results & Opening-to-Closing Line Movement
In NFL Week 5 (2026), The NFL Ticket finished 6–1 ATS (85.7%) — Locks 0–0, Likes 6–1 — and 5–6 on Totals for +3.01u across 18 picks graded against the closing line at -110 vig (full season: 28–9–4 ATS, +17.13u with all 35 losses included). Start a 2-week free email trial on /free-pick or unlock the full board with the $9.99 one-time Season Pass (21+, no pick guaranteed).
Week 5 Summary by Tier (Graded vs. Close)
Locks (1.5u)
0–0
0u
Likes (1.0u)
6–1
+4.46u
Totals (1.0u)
5–6
−1.45u
Week Net Units
+3.01u
18 graded picks
Week 5 NFL Slate — Opening vs. Consensus Lines, Spread Movement & Injury Report
Full 15-game Week 5 board with Eastern kickoff times, opening vs. current/closing spreads and totals, key injury and situational notes, and kickoff-frozen pick status. Pre-kickoff paid Locks and Likes remain protected for Season Pass holders until kickoff.
| Matchup | Kickoff (ET) | Open Spread | Current/Close Spread | Spread Move | Open Total | Current/Close Total | Key Injury / Situational Note | Pick Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB3–5ATS 3–4–1 (A 2–1)@DAL3–5ATS 3–4–1 (H 1–2–1) | Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET | — | DAL -8.5 | — | — | O/U 49.5 | Out: DAL WR K. Turpin (ribs) · Out: DAL TE L. Schoonmaker (groin) · TB on ~4.3 days rest | Total: Under 49.5 · win (+0.91u) Final: TB 24–16 DAL |
| PHI2–6ATS 1–7 (A 1–3)@JAX5–2ATS 4–3 (H 3–2) | Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 AM ET | — | JAX -7.5 | — | — | O/U 41.5 | Out: PHI WR B. Covey (knee) · Out: PHI WR D. Smith (hamstring) · PHI @ JAX in London, England | Like: PHI +7.5 · win (+0.91u) Total: Under 41.5 · win (+0.91u) Final: PHI 17–19 JAX |
| HOU2–5ATS 2–5 (A 2–1)@TEN1–7ATS 4–4 (H 1–3) | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | — | TEN +6.5 | — | — | O/U 37 | Out: TEN WR C. Tate (shoulder) · Out: TEN CB J. Jones (knee) | Season Pass ($9.99 One-Time) Locked until kickoff · Free Pick |
| CIN5–2ATS 3–3–1 (A 2–1–1)@MIA1–6ATS 3–3–1 (H 1–1–1) | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | — | MIA +7 | — | — | O/U 45 | Out: MIA OT K. Proctor (concussion) | Season Pass ($9.99 One-Time) Locked until kickoff · Free Pick |
| LV4–4ATS 6–2 (A 3–1)@NE5–3ATS 3–3–2 (H 2–0–1) | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | — | NE -3.5 | — | — | O/U 45.5 | Out: NE WR A.J. Brown (ankle) · Out: NE RB T. Henderson (illness) · LV coast-to-coast at NE | Season Pass ($9.99 One-Time) Locked until kickoff · Free Pick |
| MIN6–1ATS 4–3 (A 3–1)@NO2–5ATS 3–4 (H 0–4) | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | — | NO +2.5 | — | — | O/U 41.5 | Q: MIN QB K. Murray (hamstring) · NO on ~5.7 days rest | Total: Under 41.5 · win (+0.91u) Final: MIN 23–13 NO |
| CLE5–3ATS 5–3 (A 2–3)@NYJ2–6ATS 3–3–2 (H 2–2) | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | — | NYJ -2.5 | — | — | O/U 38.5 | Out: NYJ RB B. Hall (quadriceps) · Out: NYJ DE J. Ossai (ankle) | Season Pass ($9.99 One-Time) Locked until kickoff · Free Pick |
| IND2–6ATS 4–4 (A 3–2)@PIT6–2ATS 6–2 (H 4–0) | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | — | PIT -3 | — | — | O/U 41.5 | Out: IND WR A. Gould (concussion) · Out: IND CB J. Walley (knee) | Total: Under 41.5 · loss (−1u) Final: IND 22–34 PIT |
| NYG4–2–1ATS 5–2 (A 2–1)@WSH2–4–1ATS 4–3 (H 2–2) | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | — | WSH -3.5 | — | — | O/U 41.5 | Doubtful: WSH RB J. McNichols (foot) | Like: NYG +3.5 · win (+0.91u) Total: Under 41.5 · loss (−1u) Final: NYG 27–27 WSH |
| DEN6–2ATS 6–2 (A 2–2)@LAC0–7ATS 0–6–1 (H 0–3) | Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 PM ET | — | LAC +3.5 | — | — | O/U 42 | Out: LAC WR B. Thompson (quadriceps) · Out: LAC CB D. Jackson (hamstring) | Like: LAC +3.5 · loss (−1u) Total: Under 42 · win (+0.91u) Final: DEN 23–17 LAC |
| CHI5–2ATS 5–2 (A 2–1)@GB5–3ATS 4–3–1 (H 3–1) | Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | — | GB +1.5 | — | — | O/U 47 | Out: CHI RB K. Monangai (thumb) · Out: GB TE J. Smith (coach's decision) | Like: GB +1.5 · win (+0.91u) Total: Under 47 · win (+0.91u) Final: CHI 7–31 GB |
| DET5–2ATS 2–4–1 (A 1–2)@ARI3–5ATS 4–4 (H 0–3) | Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET | — | ARI +5 | — | — | O/U 55 | FOX broadcast · State Farm Stadium (Glendale) | Like: DET -5 · win (+0.91u) Total: Under 55 · loss (−1u) Final: DET 45–21 ARI |
| SF6–1ATS 4–3 (A 2–1)@SEA4–3ATS 2–3–2 (H 1–1–2) | Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET | — | SEA -3 | — | — | O/U 46.5 | Out: SEA OT C. Cross (ankle) · Out: SEA WR R. Shaheed (knee) | Total: Under 46.5 · loss (−1u) Final: SF 32–29 SEA |
| BAL4–4ATS 2–5–1 (A 2–2–1)@ATL3–5ATS 3–5 (H 1–3) | Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET | — | ATL -3.5 | — | — | O/U 44 | Out: BAL QB L. Jackson (thumb) · Out: ATL CB B. Bowman Jr. (hamstring) | Like: BAL +3.5 · win (+0.91u) Total: Under 44 · loss (−1u) Final: BAL 30–23 ATL |
| BUF6–1ATS 5–2 (A 2–1)@LAR4–4ATS 4–4 (H 2–3) | Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET | — | LAR -3.5 | — | — | O/U 55.5 | Out: BUF CB D. Alford (ankle) · Out: BUF OT S. Brown (back) · BUF coast-to-coast at LAR | Like: BUF +3.5 · win (+0.91u) Total: Under 55.5 · loss (−1u) Final: BUF 37–34 LAR |
Week 5 Graded Picks (Open vs. Close Line Movement)
| Matchup | Mark | Open Line | Pick (vs Close) | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF @ LAR | Like | — | BUF +3.5 | BUF 37–34 LAR | win (+0.91u) |
| BUF @ LAR | Total | — | Under 55.5 | BUF 37–34 LAR | loss (−1u) |
| BAL @ ATL | Like | — | BAL +3.5 | BAL 30–23 ATL | win (+0.91u) |
| BAL @ ATL | Total | — | Under 44 | BAL 30–23 ATL | loss (−1u) |
| DET @ ARI | Like | — | DET -5 | DET 45–21 ARI | win (+0.91u) |
| DET @ ARI | Total | — | Under 55 | DET 45–21 ARI | loss (−1u) |
| SF @ SEA | Total | — | Under 46.5 | SF 32–29 SEA | loss (−1u) |
| DEN @ LAC | Like | — | LAC +3.5 | DEN 23–17 LAC | loss (−1u) |
| DEN @ LAC | Total | — | Under 42 | DEN 23–17 LAC | win (+0.91u) |
| NYG @ WSH | Like | — | NYG +3.5 | NYG 27–27 WSH | win (+0.91u) |
| CHI @ GB | Like | — | GB +1.5 | CHI 7–31 GB | win (+0.91u) |
| IND @ PIT | Total | — | Under 41.5 | IND 22–34 PIT | loss (−1u) |
| MIN @ NO | Total | — | Under 41.5 | MIN 23–13 NO | win (+0.91u) |
| NYG @ WSH | Total | — | Under 41.5 | NYG 27–27 WSH | loss (−1u) |
| CHI @ GB | Total | — | Under 47 | CHI 7–31 GB | win (+0.91u) |
| PHI @ JAX | Like | — | PHI +7.5 | PHI 17–19 JAX | win (+0.91u) |
| PHI @ JAX | Total | — | Under 41.5 | PHI 17–19 JAX | win (+0.91u) |
| TB @ DAL | Total | — | Under 49.5 | TB 24–16 DAL | win (+0.91u) |