2026 NFL Week 4 Graded Picks, ATS Results & Opening-to-Closing Line Movement
In NFL Week 4 (2026), The NFL Ticket finished 4–0–1 ATS (100.0%) — Locks 1–0, Likes 3–0–1 — and 5–2 on Totals for +6.64u across 12 picks graded against the closing line at -110 vig (full season: 28–9–4 ATS, +17.13u with all 35 losses included). Start a 2-week free email trial on /free-pick or unlock the full board with the $9.99 one-time Season Pass (21+, no pick guaranteed).
Week 4 Summary by Tier (Graded vs. Close)
Locks (1.5u)
1–0
+1.36u
Likes (1.0u)
3–0–1
+2.73u
Totals (1.0u)
5–2
+2.55u
Week Net Units
+6.64u
12 graded picks
Week 4 NFL Slate — Opening vs. Consensus Lines, Spread Movement & Injury Report
Full 16-game Week 4 board with Eastern kickoff times, opening vs. current/closing spreads and totals, key injury and situational notes, and kickoff-frozen pick status. Pre-kickoff paid Locks and Likes remain protected for Season Pass holders until kickoff.
| Matchup | Kickoff (ET) | Open Spread | Current/Close Spread | Spread Move | Open Total | Current/Close Total | Key Injury / Situational Note | Pick Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT6–2ATS 6–2 (A 2–2)@CLE5–3ATS 5–3 (H 3–0) | Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET | — | CLE +3.5 | — | — | O/U 42 | Out: PIT CB B. Echols (hamstring) · Out: PIT WR B. Skowronek (calf) · PIT on ~4.3 days rest | Season Pass ($9.99 One-Time) Locked until kickoff · Free Pick |
| IND2–6ATS 4–4 (A 3–2)@WSH2–4–1ATS 4–3 (H 2–2) | Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET | — | WSH +5 | — | — | O/U 46.5 | Out: IND WR A. Gould (concussion) · Out: IND CB J. Walley (knee) · IND @ WSH in London, England | Total: Under 46.5 · win (+0.91u) Final: IND 30–13 WSH |
| NE5–3ATS 3–3–2 (A 1–3–1)@BUF6–1ATS 5–2 (H 3–1) | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | — | BUF -7 | — | — | O/U 49.5 | Out: BUF CB D. Alford (ankle) · Out: BUF OT S. Brown (back) | Season Pass ($9.99 One-Time) Locked until kickoff · Free Pick |
| NYJ2–6ATS 3–3–2 (A 1–1–2)@CHI5–2ATS 5–2 (H 3–1) | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | — | CHI -3.5 | — | — | O/U 43.5 | Out: CHI RB K. Monangai (thumb) · Out: NYJ RB B. Hall (quadriceps) · CHI on ~5.7 days rest | Total: Under 43.5 · win (+0.91u) Final: NYJ 12–23 CHI |
| JAX5–2ATS 4–3 (A 1–1)@CIN5–2ATS 3–3–1 (H 1–2) | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | — | CIN -2.5 | — | — | O/U 51.5 | CBS broadcast · Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati) | Season Pass ($9.99 One-Time) Locked until kickoff · Free Pick |
| ARI3–5ATS 4–4 (A 4–1)@NYG4–2–1ATS 5–2 (H 3–1) | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | — | NYG +2.5 | — | — | O/U 44.5 | ARI coast-to-coast at NYG | Like: NYG +2.5 · win (+0.91u) Total: Under 44.5 · loss (−1u) Final: ARI 24–36 NYG |
| LAR4–4ATS 4–4 (A 2–1)@PHI2–6ATS 1–7 (H 0–4) | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | — | PHI +3.5 | — | — | O/U 42.5 | Out: LAR TE C. Parkinson (ribs) · Out: PHI WR B. Covey (knee) · LAR coast-to-coast at PHI | Season Pass ($9.99 One-Time) Locked until kickoff · Free Pick |
| GB5–3ATS 4–3–1 (A 1–2–1)@TB3–5ATS 3–4–1 (H 1–3–1) | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | — | TB +3 | — | — | O/U 38.5 | Out: GB TE J. Smith (coach's decision) · Out: GB RB K. Johnson (coach's decision) | Season Pass ($9.99 One-Time) Locked until kickoff · Free Pick |
| TEN1–7ATS 4–4 (A 3–1)@BAL4–4ATS 2–5–1 (H 0–3) | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | — | BAL -11.5 | — | — | O/U 42.5 | Out: BAL QB L. Jackson (thumb) · Out: TEN WR C. Tate (shoulder) | Like: TEN +11.5 · win (+0.91u) Total: Under 42.5 · win (+0.91u) Final: TEN 18–24 BAL |
| DAL3–5ATS 3–4–1 (A 2–2)@HOU2–5ATS 2–5 (H 0–4) | Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | — | HOU -3 | — | — | O/U 48.5 | Out: DAL WR K. Turpin (ribs) · Out: DAL TE L. Schoonmaker (groin) | Season Pass ($9.99 One-Time) Locked until kickoff · Free Pick |
| MIA1–6ATS 3–3–1 (A 2–2)@MIN6–1ATS 4–3 (H 1–2) | Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET | — | MIN -10 | — | — | O/U 38.5 | Out: MIA OT K. Proctor (concussion) · Q: MIN QB K. Murray (hamstring) | Like: MIA +10 · win (+0.91u) Final: MIA 10–15 MIN |
| KC5–2ATS 3–4 (A 1–3)@LV4–4ATS 6–2 (H 3–1) | Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET | — | LV +3.5 | — | — | O/U 47.5 | Out: KC CB M. Delane (shoulder) | Total: Over 47.5 · win (+0.91u) Final: KC 30–27 LV |
| DEN6–2ATS 6–2 (A 2–2)@SF6–1ATS 4–3 (H 2–2) | Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET | — | SF -3 | — | — | O/U 48.5 | Out: SF WR B. Aiyuk (personal) | Season Pass ($9.99 One-Time) Locked until kickoff · Free Pick |
| LAC0–7ATS 0–6–1 (A 0–3–1)@SEA4–3ATS 2–3–2 (H 1–1–2) | Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET | — | SEA -7 | — | — | O/U 43.5 | Out: LAC WR B. Thompson (quadriceps) · Out: LAC CB D. Jackson (hamstring) | Like: SEA -7 · push (0u) Total: Under 43.5 · loss (−1u) Final: LAC 23–30 SEA |
| DET5–2ATS 2–4–1 (A 1–2)@CAR3–4ATS 3–4 (H 1–2) | Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET | — | CAR +3.5 | — | — | O/U 52.5 | Out: CAR QB H. King (coach's decision) · Out: CAR RB A. Dillon (coach's decision) | Total: Over 52.5 · win (+0.91u) Final: DET 26–32 CAR |
| ATL3–5ATS 3–5 (A 2–2)@NO2–5ATS 3–4 (H 0–4) | Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET | — | NO -1.5 | — | — | O/U 48.5 | Out: ATL CB B. Bowman Jr. (hamstring) · Out: ATL RB B. Robinson Jr. (hamstring) · ATL on ~11 days rest | Lock: ATL +1.5 · win (+1.36u) Final: ATL 45–24 NO |
Week 4 Graded Picks (Open vs. Close Line Movement)
| Matchup | Mark | Open Line | Pick (vs Close) | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ NO | Lock | — | ATL +1.5 | ATL 45–24 NO | win (+1.36u) |
| DET @ CAR | Total | — | Over 52.5 | DET 26–32 CAR | win (+0.91u) |
| LAC @ SEA | Like | — | SEA -7 | LAC 23–30 SEA | push (0u) |
| KC @ LV | Total | — | Over 47.5 | KC 30–27 LV | win (+0.91u) |
| LAC @ SEA | Total | — | Under 43.5 | LAC 23–30 SEA | loss (−1u) |
| MIA @ MIN | Like | — | MIA +10 | MIA 10–15 MIN | win (+0.91u) |
| ARI @ NYG | Like | — | NYG +2.5 | ARI 24–36 NYG | win (+0.91u) |
| TEN @ BAL | Like | — | TEN +11.5 | TEN 18–24 BAL | win (+0.91u) |
| ARI @ NYG | Total | — | Under 44.5 | ARI 24–36 NYG | loss (−1u) |
| NYJ @ CHI | Total | — | Under 43.5 | NYJ 12–23 CHI | win (+0.91u) |
| TEN @ BAL | Total | — | Under 42.5 | TEN 18–24 BAL | win (+0.91u) |
| IND @ WSH | Total | — | Under 46.5 | IND 30–13 WSH | win (+0.91u) |