2026 NFL Week 3 Graded Picks, ATS Results & Opening-to-Closing Line Movement
In NFL Week 3 (2026), The NFL Ticket finished 3–0–2 ATS (100.0%) — Locks 1–0, Likes 2–0–2 — and 4–1 on Totals for +5.82u across 10 picks graded against the closing line at -110 vig (full season: 28–9–4 ATS, +17.13u with all 35 losses included). Start a 2-week free email trial on /free-pick or unlock the full board with the $9.99 one-time Season Pass (21+, no pick guaranteed).
Week 3 Summary by Tier (Graded vs. Close)
Locks (1.5u)
1–0
+1.36u
Likes (1.0u)
2–0–2
+1.82u
Totals (1.0u)
4–1
+2.64u
Week Net Units
+5.82u
10 graded picks
Week 3 NFL Slate — Opening vs. Consensus Lines, Spread Movement & Injury Report
Full 16-game Week 3 board with Eastern kickoff times, opening vs. current/closing spreads and totals, key injury and situational notes, and kickoff-frozen pick status. Pre-kickoff paid Locks and Likes remain protected for Season Pass holders until kickoff.
| Matchup | Kickoff (ET) | Open Spread | Current/Close Spread | Spread Move | Open Total | Current/Close Total | Key Injury / Situational Note | Pick Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL3–5ATS 3–5 (A 2–2)@GB5–3ATS 4–3–1 (H 3–1) | Thu, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET | — | GB -4.5 | — | — | O/U 43.5 | Out: ATL CB B. Bowman Jr. (hamstring) · Out: ATL RB B. Robinson Jr. (hamstring) · ATL on ~4.3 days rest | Like: ATL +4.5 · win (+0.91u) Final: ATL 35–14 GB |
| LAC0–7ATS 0–6–1 (A 0–3–1)@BUF6–1ATS 5–2 (H 3–1) | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | — | BUF -7 | — | — | O/U 50.5 | Out: BUF CB D. Alford (ankle) · Out: BUF OT S. Brown (back) · LAC coast-to-coast at BUF | Season Pass ($9.99 One-Time) Locked until kickoff · Free Pick |
| CAR3–4ATS 3–4 (A 2–2)@CLE5–3ATS 5–3 (H 3–0) | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | — | CLE +2 | — | — | O/U 41.5 | Out: CAR QB H. King (coach's decision) · Out: CAR RB A. Dillon (coach's decision) | Season Pass ($9.99 One-Time) Locked until kickoff · Free Pick |
| NYJ2–6ATS 3–3–2 (A 1–1–2)@DET5–2ATS 2–4–1 (H 1–2–1) | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | — | DET -7 | — | — | O/U 49.5 | Out: NYJ RB B. Hall (quadriceps) · Out: NYJ DE J. Ossai (ankle) | Like: DET -7 · push (0u) Total: Over 49.5 · win (+0.91u) Final: NYJ 24–31 DET |
| HOU2–5ATS 2–5 (A 2–1)@IND2–6ATS 4–4 (H 1–2) | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | — | IND +1.5 | — | — | O/U 42 | Out: IND WR A. Gould (concussion) · Out: IND CB J. Walley (knee) | Season Pass ($9.99 One-Time) Locked until kickoff · Free Pick |
| KC5–2ATS 3–4 (A 1–3)@MIA1–6ATS 3–3–1 (H 1–1–1) | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | — | MIA +9.5 | — | — | O/U 45.5 | Out: KC CB M. Delane (shoulder) · Out: MIA OT K. Proctor (concussion) | Season Pass ($9.99 One-Time) Locked until kickoff · Free Pick |
| TEN1–7ATS 4–4 (A 3–1)@NYG4–2–1ATS 5–2 (H 3–1) | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | — | NYG -3 | — | — | O/U 38.5 | Out: TEN WR C. Tate (shoulder) · Out: TEN CB J. Jones (knee) · NYG on ~5.7 days rest | Season Pass ($9.99 One-Time) Locked until kickoff · Free Pick |
| CIN5–2ATS 3–3–1 (A 2–1–1)@PIT6–2ATS 6–2 (H 4–0) | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | — | PIT +3.5 | — | — | O/U 42 | Out: PIT CB B. Echols (hamstring) · Out: PIT WR B. Skowronek (calf) | Lock: PIT +3.5 · win (+1.36u) Final: CIN 27–30 PIT |
| SEA4–3ATS 2–3–2 (A 1–2)@WSH2–4–1ATS 4–3 (H 2–2) | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | — | WSH +21.5 | — | — | O/U 33 | Out: SEA OT C. Cross (ankle) · Out: SEA WR R. Shaheed (knee) · SEA coast-to-coast at WSH | Total: Under 33 · loss (−1u) Final: SEA 31–33 WSH |
| NE5–3ATS 3–3–2 (A 1–3–1)@JAX5–2ATS 4–3 (H 3–2) | Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET | — | JAX -3 | — | — | O/U 46.5 | Out: NE WR A.J. Brown (ankle) · Out: NE RB T. Henderson (illness) | Season Pass ($9.99 One-Time) Locked until kickoff · Free Pick |
| ARI3–5ATS 4–4 (A 4–1)@SF6–1ATS 4–3 (H 2–2) | Sun, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET | — | SF -7.5 | — | — | O/U 48.5 | Out: SF WR B. Aiyuk (personal) | Season Pass ($9.99 One-Time) Locked until kickoff · Free Pick |
| MIN6–1ATS 4–3 (A 3–1)@TB3–5ATS 3–4–1 (H 1–3–1) | Sun, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET | — | TB +1.5 | — | — | O/U 42.5 | Out: TB WR E. Egbuka (foot) · Q: MIN QB K. Murray (hamstring) | Total: Under 42.5 · win (+0.91u) Final: MIN 23–16 TB |
| BAL4–4ATS 2–5–1 (A 2–2–1)@DAL3–5ATS 3–4–1 (H 1–2–1) | Sun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET | — | DAL +3 | — | — | O/U 53.5 | Out: BAL QB L. Jackson (thumb) · Out: DAL WR K. Turpin (ribs) · BAL @ DAL in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil | Like: DAL +3 · push (0u) Total: Over 53.5 · win (+0.91u) Final: BAL 34–31 DAL |
| LV4–4ATS 6–2 (A 3–1)@NO2–5ATS 3–4 (H 0–4) | Sun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET | — | NO -3.5 | — | — | O/U 43.5 | Key #3 spread window · Caesars Superdome | Like: LV +3.5 · win (+0.91u) Final: LV 35–27 NO |
| LAR4–4ATS 4–4 (A 2–1)@DEN6–2ATS 6–2 (H 4–0) | Sun, Sep 27, 8:20 PM ET | — | DEN +1.5 | — | — | O/U 43.5 | Out: LAR TE C. Parkinson (ribs) | Season Pass ($9.99 One-Time) Locked until kickoff · Free Pick |
| PHI2–6ATS 1–7 (A 1–3)@CHI5–2ATS 5–2 (H 3–1) | Mon, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET | — | CHI +3 | — | — | O/U 42.5 | Out: CHI RB K. Monangai (thumb) · Out: PHI WR B. Covey (knee) | Total: Under 42.5 · win (+0.91u) Final: PHI 7–27 CHI |
Week 3 Graded Picks (Open vs. Close Line Movement)
| Matchup | Mark | Open Line | Pick (vs Close) | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ CHI | Total | — | Under 42.5 | PHI 7–27 CHI | win (+0.91u) |
| BAL @ DAL | Like | — | DAL +3 | BAL 34–31 DAL | push (0u) |
| LV @ NO | Like | — | LV +3.5 | LV 35–27 NO | win (+0.91u) |
| BAL @ DAL | Total | — | Over 53.5 | BAL 34–31 DAL | win (+0.91u) |
| MIN @ TB | Total | — | Under 42.5 | MIN 23–16 TB | win (+0.91u) |
| CIN @ PIT | Lock | — | PIT +3.5 | CIN 27–30 PIT | win (+1.36u) |
| NYJ @ DET | Like | — | DET -7 | NYJ 24–31 DET | push (0u) |
| NYJ @ DET | Total | — | Over 49.5 | NYJ 24–31 DET | win (+0.91u) |
| SEA @ WSH | Total | — | Under 33 | SEA 31–33 WSH | loss (−1u) |
| ATL @ GB | Like | — | ATL +4.5 | ATL 35–14 GB | win (+0.91u) |