2026 NFL Picks Track Record — Graded Against the Closing Line
Through the 2026 NFL season, The NFL Ticket is 28–9–4 ATS (75.7%) and +17.13u across 94 graded picks (Locks: 4–0, Likes: 24–9–4, Totals: 27–26). Every pick freezes at kickoff and is graded against the consensus sportsbook closing line at standard -110 vig — zero deleted losses, independently verified on TrustMyRecord, War Room Picks, and Veri.bet.
Season Summary by Tier (1.5u Locks, 1.0u Likes & 1.0u Totals)*
Locks (ATS)
4–0
1.5u stake · 100.0% (+5.91u)
Likes (ATS)
24–9–4
1.0u stake · 72.7% (+12.77u)
Totals (O/U)
27–26
1.0u stake · 50.9% (−1.55u)
Season Units
+17.13u
Standard -110 vig
Graded Picks
94
Combined ATS 28–9–4
Graded vs
Close
Frozen at kickoff
* Week 1 was posted before the stake rule (2u Lock on ARI, 1.5u Likes on NO and CLE) and is graded at the stakes posted.
How Our Record Is Verified
Every Lock and Like freezes in our database at official game kickoff and grades automatically against the consensus closing line after Final. We verify our picks across four independent layers — and unlike $99–$299/month tout subscriptions that erase bankroll ROI, our entire 2026 NFL Season Pass is $9.99 one-time:
- TrustMyRecord (JimboBet) — full paid member card locked hidden-until-kickoff before game time and revealed automatically at kickoff.
- War Room Picks (JimboBet) — public free picks independently timestamped before kickoff and auto-graded.
- Veri.bet (nflpicks.live) & /api/pickauditor-feed — verified domain attestation and machine-readable PickAuditor JSON syndication feed.
This Week — Week 8
1–3 (−2.09u)
1 upcoming pick locked until kickoff
| Game | Mark | Pick | Final | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ DAL | Like | ARI +7.5 | ARI 33–30 DAL | win (+0.91u) |
| MIN @ DET | Like | MIN +3.5 | MIN 15–19 DET | loss (−1u) |
| BAL @ BUF | Total | Over 55.5 | BAL 10–36 BUF | loss (−1u) |
| NE @ MIA | Total | Under 41 | NE 24–19 MIA | loss (−1u) |
2026 NFL Record by Week (ATS, Totals & Units)
Week-by-week breakdown of every Final pick graded against the closing line at -110 odds. Click any week for opening-to-closing line movement, injury context, and full game scores.
| Week | Locks (ATS) | Likes (ATS) | Totals (O/U) | Combined W–L–P | Net Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | 0–0 | 1–1 | 0–2 | 1–3 | −2.09u |
| Week 7 | 1–0 | 0–1 | 1–3 | 2–4 | −1.73u |
| Week 6 | 0–0 | 1–2 | 6–4 | 7–6 | +0.37u |
| Week 5 | 0–0 | 6–1 | 5–6 | 11–7 | +3.01u |
| Week 4 | 1–0 | 3–0–1 | 5–2 | 9–2–1 | +6.64u |
| Week 3 | 1–0 | 2–0–2 | 4–1 | 7–1–2 | +5.82u |
| Week 2 | 0–0 | 2–1 | 0–0 | 2–1 | +0.82u |
| Week 1 | 1–0 | 9–3–1 | 6–8 | 16–11–1 | +4.33u |
Weeks 6–8 free picks the desk passed on are tracked on the Free Picks Record, not in this table.
Every Graded 2026 NFL Pick (Wins, Losses & Pushes vs. Close)
| Wk | Game | Mark | Open Line | Pick (vs Close) | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | NE @ MIA | Total | Under 44.5 | Under 41 | NE 24–19 MIA | loss (−1u) |
| 8 | ARI @ DAL | Like | ARI +6.5 | ARI +7.5 | ARI 33–30 DAL | win (+0.91u) |
| 8 | MIN @ DET | Like | MIN +3 | MIN +3.5 | MIN 15–19 DET | loss (−1u) |
| 8 | BAL @ BUF | Total | Over 53.5 | Over 55.5 | BAL 10–36 BUF | loss (−1u) |
| 7 | DAL @ PHI | Lock | DAL -4.5 | DAL -4.5 | DAL 38–21 PHI | win (+1.36u) |
| 7 | GB @ DET | Total | Over 53 | Over 55.5 | GB 17–20 DET | loss (−1u) |
| 7 | LAR @ LV | Total | Over 47.5 | Over 49.5 | LAR 35–21 LV | win (+0.91u) |
| 7 | SF @ ATL | Like | SF -4.5 | SF -2.5 | SF 20–29 ATL | loss (−1u) |
| 7 | CIN @ BAL | Total | Under 51 | Under 46.5 | CIN 35–13 BAL | loss (−1u) |
| 7 | NE @ CHI | Total | — | Under 50.5 | NE 24–30 CHI | loss (−1u) |
| 6 | WSH @ SF | Total | — | Under 51.5 | WSH 17–23 SF | win (+0.91u) |
| 6 | DAL @ GB | Total | — | Over 54 | DAL 13–23 GB | loss (−1u) |
| 6 | BUF @ LV | Like | — | BUF -5 | BUF 33–30 LV | loss (−1u) |
| 6 | LAC @ KC | Like | — | LAC +7.5 | LAC 6–22 KC | loss (−1u) |
| 6 | BUF @ LV | Total | — | Under 54 | BUF 33–30 LV | loss (−1u) |
| 6 | LAC @ KC | Total | — | Under 41.5 | LAC 6–22 KC | win (+0.91u) |
| 6 | ARI @ LAR | Total | — | Under 51.5 | ARI 18–16 LAR | win (+0.91u) |
| 6 | TEN @ IND | Like | — | TEN +6.5 | TEN 26–20 IND | win (+0.91u) |
| 6 | BAL @ CLE | Total | — | Under 39.5 | BAL 10–13 CLE | win (+0.91u) |
| 6 | CAR @ PHI | Total | — | Under 39.5 | CAR 25–14 PHI | win (+0.91u) |
| 6 | PIT @ TB | Total | — | Under 37.5 | PIT 26–19 TB | loss (−1u) |
| 6 | TEN @ IND | Total | — | Under 43.5 | TEN 26–20 IND | loss (−1u) |
| 6 | SEA @ DEN | Total | — | Under 40.5 | SEA 14–17 DEN | win (+0.91u) |
| 5 | BUF @ LAR | Like | — | BUF +3.5 | BUF 37–34 LAR | win (+0.91u) |
| 5 | BUF @ LAR | Total | — | Under 55.5 | BUF 37–34 LAR | loss (−1u) |
| 5 | BAL @ ATL | Like | — | BAL +3.5 | BAL 30–23 ATL | win (+0.91u) |
| 5 | BAL @ ATL | Total | — | Under 44 | BAL 30–23 ATL | loss (−1u) |
| 5 | DET @ ARI | Like | — | DET -5 | DET 45–21 ARI | win (+0.91u) |
| 5 | DET @ ARI | Total | — | Under 55 | DET 45–21 ARI | loss (−1u) |
| 5 | SF @ SEA | Total | — | Under 46.5 | SF 32–29 SEA | loss (−1u) |
| 5 | DEN @ LAC | Like | — | LAC +3.5 | DEN 23–17 LAC | loss (−1u) |
| 5 | DEN @ LAC | Total | — | Under 42 | DEN 23–17 LAC | win (+0.91u) |
| 5 | NYG @ WSH | Like | — | NYG +3.5 | NYG 27–27 WSH | win (+0.91u) |
| 5 | CHI @ GB | Like | — | GB +1.5 | CHI 7–31 GB | win (+0.91u) |
| 5 | IND @ PIT | Total | — | Under 41.5 | IND 22–34 PIT | loss (−1u) |
| 5 | MIN @ NO | Total | — | Under 41.5 | MIN 23–13 NO | win (+0.91u) |
| 5 | NYG @ WSH | Total | — | Under 41.5 | NYG 27–27 WSH | loss (−1u) |
| 5 | CHI @ GB | Total | — | Under 47 | CHI 7–31 GB | win (+0.91u) |
| 5 | PHI @ JAX | Like | — | PHI +7.5 | PHI 17–19 JAX | win (+0.91u) |
| 5 | PHI @ JAX | Total | — | Under 41.5 | PHI 17–19 JAX | win (+0.91u) |
| 5 | TB @ DAL | Total | — | Under 49.5 | TB 24–16 DAL | win (+0.91u) |
| 4 | ATL @ NO | Lock | — | ATL +1.5 | ATL 45–24 NO | win (+1.36u) |
| 4 | DET @ CAR | Total | — | Over 52.5 | DET 26–32 CAR | win (+0.91u) |
| 4 | LAC @ SEA | Like | — | SEA -7 | LAC 23–30 SEA | push (0u) |
| 4 | KC @ LV | Total | — | Over 47.5 | KC 30–27 LV | win (+0.91u) |
| 4 | LAC @ SEA | Total | — | Under 43.5 | LAC 23–30 SEA | loss (−1u) |
| 4 | MIA @ MIN | Like | — | MIA +10 | MIA 10–15 MIN | win (+0.91u) |
| 4 | ARI @ NYG | Like | — | NYG +2.5 | ARI 24–36 NYG | win (+0.91u) |
| 4 | TEN @ BAL | Like | — | TEN +11.5 | TEN 18–24 BAL | win (+0.91u) |
| 4 | ARI @ NYG | Total | — | Under 44.5 | ARI 24–36 NYG | loss (−1u) |
| 4 | NYJ @ CHI | Total | — | Under 43.5 | NYJ 12–23 CHI | win (+0.91u) |
| 4 | TEN @ BAL | Total | — | Under 42.5 | TEN 18–24 BAL | win (+0.91u) |
| 4 | IND @ WSH | Total | — | Under 46.5 | IND 30–13 WSH | win (+0.91u) |
| 3 | PHI @ CHI | Total | — | Under 42.5 | PHI 7–27 CHI | win (+0.91u) |
| 3 | BAL @ DAL | Like | — | DAL +3 | BAL 34–31 DAL | push (0u) |
| 3 | LV @ NO | Like | — | LV +3.5 | LV 35–27 NO | win (+0.91u) |
| 3 | BAL @ DAL | Total | — | Over 53.5 | BAL 34–31 DAL | win (+0.91u) |
| 3 | MIN @ TB | Total | — | Under 42.5 | MIN 23–16 TB | win (+0.91u) |
| 3 | CIN @ PIT | Lock | — | PIT +3.5 | CIN 27–30 PIT | win (+1.36u) |
| 3 | NYJ @ DET | Like | — | DET -7 | NYJ 24–31 DET | push (0u) |
| 3 | NYJ @ DET | Total | — | Over 49.5 | NYJ 24–31 DET | win (+0.91u) |
| 3 | SEA @ WSH | Total | — | Under 33 | SEA 31–33 WSH | loss (−1u) |
| 3 | ATL @ GB | Like | — | ATL +4.5 | ATL 35–14 GB | win (+0.91u) |
| 2 | MIA @ SF | Like | — | MIA +12.5 | MIA 13–35 SF | loss (−1u) |
| 2 | MIN @ CHI | Like | — | MIN +4.5 | MIN 9–3 CHI | win (+0.91u) |
| 2 | NO @ BAL | Like | — | NO +8.5 | NO 24–17 BAL | win (+0.91u) |
| 1 | DEN @ KC | Like | — | KC -2.5 | DEN 10–31 KC | win (+0.91u) |
| 1 | DEN @ KC | Total | — | Under 42.5 | DEN 10–31 KC | win (+0.91u) |
| 1 | DAL @ NYG | Like | — | NYG +3 | DAL 20–28 NYG | win (+0.91u) |
| 1 | DAL @ NYG | Total | — | Under 47.5 | DAL 20–28 NYG | loss (−1u) |
| 1 | ARI @ LAC | Lock | — | ARI +8.5 | ARI 26–14 LAC | win (+1.82u) |
| 1 | MIA @ LV | Like | — | LV -3 | MIA 13–27 LV | win (+0.91u) |
| 1 | WSH @ PHI | Like | — | PHI -6 | WSH 22–24 PHI | loss (−1u) |
| 1 | ARI @ LAC | Total | — | Under 47.5 | ARI 26–14 LAC | win (+1.82u) |
| 1 | MIA @ LV | Total | — | Under 40.5 | MIA 13–27 LV | win (+0.91u) |
| 1 | WSH @ PHI | Total | — | Under 43.5 | WSH 22–24 PHI | loss (−1u) |
| 1 | ATL @ PIT | Like | — | PIT -6.5 | ATL 13–20 PIT | win (+0.91u) |
| 1 | BAL @ IND | Like | — | BAL -3 | BAL 41–23 IND | win (+0.91u) |
| 1 | BUF @ HOU | Like | — | BUF -1.5 | BUF 36–31 HOU | win (+0.91u) |
| 1 | CHI @ CAR | Like | — | CAR +3 | CHI 59–37 CAR | loss (−1u) |
| 1 | CLE @ JAX | Like | — | CLE +8.5 | CLE 10–34 JAX | loss (−1.5u) |
| 1 | NO @ DET | Like | — | NO +7 | NO 30–31 DET | win (+1.36u) |
| 1 | TB @ CIN | Like | — | CIN -3.5 | TB 27–33 CIN | win (+0.91u) |
| 1 | ATL @ PIT | Total | — | Under 40.5 | ATL 13–20 PIT | win (+0.91u) |
| 1 | BAL @ IND | Total | — | Under 48.5 | BAL 41–23 IND | loss (−1u) |
| 1 | BUF @ HOU | Total | — | Under 44.5 | BUF 36–31 HOU | loss (−1u) |
| 1 | CHI @ CAR | Total | — | Under 47.5 | CHI 59–37 CAR | loss (−1u) |
| 1 | CLE @ JAX | Total | — | Under 40.5 | CLE 10–34 JAX | loss (−1.5u) |
| 1 | NO @ DET | Total | — | Under 49.5 | NO 30–31 DET | loss (−1.5u) |
| 1 | TB @ CIN | Total | — | Under 50.5 | TB 27–33 CIN | loss (−1u) |
| 1 | SF @ LAR | Like | — | SF +3.5 | SF 27–7 LAR | win (+0.91u) |
| 1 | SF @ LAR | Total | — | Under 47.5 | SF 27–7 LAR | win (+0.91u) |
| 1 | NE @ SEA | Like | — | NE +3 | NE 10–13 SEA | push (0u) |
| 1 | NE @ SEA | Total | — | Under 44.5 | NE 10–13 SEA | win (+0.91u) |
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Grading Rules & Closing Line Methodology
Every spread and over/under total on The NFL Ticket is published before kickoff, frozen automatically when the game kicks off, and graded against the consensus sportsbook closing line once the game goes Final. Standard -110 vig is applied to every graded bet:
- Locks (1.5u ATS): Highest-conviction weekly spread plays (+1.36u on a win, -1.50u on a loss, 0.00u on a push).
- Likes (1.0u ATS) & Totals (1.0u O/U): Standard-stake spread and total plays (+0.91u on a win, -1.00u on a loss, 0.00u on a push).
Read our complete CLV, Key Numbers (3 & 7) & Grading Methodology, explore the 2026 NFL Over/Under Totals Hub & Key Numbers (37, 41, 43, 44, 47, 51), test any spread or total bet in our Closing Line Value (CLV) & No-Vig EV% Calculator, visit the Free NFL Pick of the Week, unlock the full slate on the 2026 NFL Season Pass, or check our sister desk at The NBA Ticket Track Record.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
- How are NFL picks on The NFL Ticket graded?
- Every NFL spread and total pick freezes automatically at official game kickoff and is graded against the consensus sportsbook closing line once the game reaches Final status. Standard -110 vig is applied to all unit calculations (1.0u risked wins +0.91u; a loss is -1.00u; a push is 0.00u) so results reflect real-world sportsbook pricing.
- What is the difference between a Lock and a Like on The NFL Ticket?
- A Lock is the desk's highest-conviction NFL spread play of the week, staked at 1.5 units (winning +1.36u at -110 juice). A Like is a standard-conviction spread or over/under total play staked at 1.0 unit (winning +0.91u at -110 juice).
- Why grade NFL picks against the closing line instead of the opening line?
- The closing line is the sharpest, most liquid number in sports betting, incorporating all injury news, weather updates, and sharp market action right before kickoff. Grading against the closing line prevents cherry-picking stale Tuesday or Wednesday numbers that bettors can no longer bet by Sunday.
- Are losing NFL picks ever deleted or edited after kickoff?
- Never. Once a game kicks off, the pick side, unit stake, and closing line are permanently locked in the database. Every win, loss, and push remains on the public track record for the entire 2026 NFL season, and our picks are independently tracked across TrustMyRecord, War Room Picks, and Veri.bet.
- How can I get this week's NFL Lock and full slate of Likes?
- We publish one free Like every week and a 2-week (14-day) free email trial on our Free Pick page (/free-pick). To unlock the weekly 1.5u Lock, every spread and total Like, live line movement vs. the open, and instant Lock email alerts for the entire 2026 season, get the one-time $9.99 Season Pass (/promo).