2026 NFL Week 1 Graded Picks, ATS Results & Opening-to-Closing Line Movement
In NFL Week 1 (2026), The NFL Ticket finished 10–3–1 ATS (76.9%) — Locks 1–0, Likes 9–3–1 — and 6–8 on Totals for +4.33u across 28 picks graded against the closing line at -110 vig (full season: 28–9–4 ATS, +17.13u with all 35 losses included). Start a 2-week free email trial on /free-pick or unlock the full board with the $9.99 one-time Season Pass (21+, no pick guaranteed).
Week 1 Summary by Tier (Graded vs. Close)
Locks (1.5u)
1–0
+1.82u
Likes (1.0u)
9–3–1
+5.14u
Totals (1.0u)
6–8
−2.63u
Week Net Units
+4.33u
28 graded picks
Week 1 was posted before the stake rule (2u Lock on ARI, 1.5u Likes on NO and CLE) and is graded at the stakes posted.
Week 1 NFL Slate — Opening vs. Consensus Lines, Spread Movement & Injury Report
Full 16-game Week 1 board with Eastern kickoff times, opening vs. current/closing spreads and totals, key injury and situational notes, and kickoff-frozen pick status. Pre-kickoff paid Locks and Likes remain protected for Season Pass holders until kickoff.
| Matchup | Kickoff (ET) | Open Spread | Current/Close Spread | Spread Move | Open Total | Current/Close Total | Key Injury / Situational Note | Pick Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE5–3ATS 3–3–2 (A 1–3–1)@SEA4–3ATS 2–3–2 (H 1–1–2) | Wed, Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET | — | SEA -3 | — | — | O/U 44.5 | Out: NE WR A.J. Brown (ankle) · Out: NE RB T. Henderson (illness) · NE coast-to-coast at SEA | Like: NE +3 · push (0u) Total: Under 44.5 · win (+0.91u) Final: NE 10–13 SEA |
| SF6–1ATS 4–3 (A 2–1)@LAR4–4ATS 4–4 (H 2–3) | Thu, Sep 10, 8:35 PM ET | — | LAR -3.5 | — | — | O/U 47.5 | Out: LAR TE C. Parkinson (ribs) · Out: SF WR B. Aiyuk (personal) · SF @ LAR in Melbourne, Australia | Like: SF +3.5 · win (+0.91u) Total: Under 47.5 · win (+0.91u) Final: SF 27–7 LAR |
| TB3–5ATS 3–4–1 (A 2–1)@CIN5–2ATS 3–3–1 (H 1–2) | Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET | — | CIN -3.5 | — | — | O/U 50.5 | Out: TB WR E. Egbuka (foot) | Like: CIN -3.5 · win (+0.91u) Total: Under 50.5 · loss (−1u) Final: TB 27–33 CIN |
| NO2–5ATS 3–4 (A 3–0)@DET5–2ATS 2–4–1 (H 1–2–1) | Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET | — | DET -7 | — | — | O/U 49.5 | Key #7 spread window · Ford Field | Like: NO +7 · win (+1.36u) Total: Under 49.5 · loss (−1.5u) Final: NO 30–31 DET |
| NYJ2–6ATS 3–3–2 (A 1–1–2)@TEN1–7ATS 4–4 (H 1–3) | Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET | — | TEN -1.5 | — | — | O/U 39.5 | Out: NYJ RB B. Hall (quadriceps) · Out: NYJ DE J. Ossai (ankle) | Season Pass ($9.99 One-Time) Locked until kickoff · Free Pick |
| BAL4–4ATS 2–5–1 (A 2–2–1)@IND2–6ATS 4–4 (H 1–2) | Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET | — | IND +3 | — | — | O/U 48.5 | Out: BAL QB L. Jackson (thumb) · Out: IND WR A. Gould (concussion) | Like: BAL -3 · win (+0.91u) Total: Under 48.5 · loss (−1u) Final: BAL 41–23 IND |
| ATL3–5ATS 3–5 (A 2–2)@PIT6–2ATS 6–2 (H 4–0) | Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET | — | PIT -6.5 | — | — | O/U 40.5 | Out: ATL CB B. Bowman Jr. (hamstring) · Out: ATL RB B. Robinson Jr. (hamstring) | Like: PIT -6.5 · win (+0.91u) Total: Under 40.5 · win (+0.91u) Final: ATL 13–20 PIT |
| CHI5–2ATS 5–2 (A 2–1)@CAR3–4ATS 3–4 (H 1–2) | Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET | — | CAR +3 | — | — | O/U 47.5 | Out: CAR QB H. King (coach's decision) · Out: CAR RB A. Dillon (coach's decision) | Like: CAR +3 · loss (−1u) Total: Under 47.5 · loss (−1u) Final: CHI 59–37 CAR |
| CLE5–3ATS 5–3 (A 2–3)@JAX5–2ATS 4–3 (H 3–2) | Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET | — | JAX -8.5 | — | — | O/U 40.5 | Key #7 spread window · EverBank Stadium | Like: CLE +8.5 · loss (−1.5u) Total: Under 40.5 · loss (−1.5u) Final: CLE 10–34 JAX |
| BUF6–1ATS 5–2 (A 2–1)@HOU2–5ATS 2–5 (H 0–4) | Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET | — | HOU +1.5 | — | — | O/U 44.5 | Out: BUF CB D. Alford (ankle) · Out: BUF OT S. Brown (back) | Like: BUF -1.5 · win (+0.91u) Total: Under 44.5 · loss (−1u) Final: BUF 36–31 HOU |
| MIA1–6ATS 3–3–1 (A 2–2)@LV4–4ATS 6–2 (H 3–1) | Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET | — | LV -3 | — | — | O/U 40.5 | Out: MIA OT K. Proctor (concussion) · MIA coast-to-coast at LV | Like: LV -3 · win (+0.91u) Total: Under 40.5 · win (+0.91u) Final: MIA 13–27 LV |
| GB5–3ATS 4–3–1 (A 1–2–1)@MIN6–1ATS 4–3 (H 1–2) | Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET | — | MIN -2.5 | — | — | O/U 46.5 | Out: GB TE J. Smith (coach's decision) · Out: GB RB K. Johnson (coach's decision) | Season Pass ($9.99 One-Time) Locked until kickoff · Free Pick |
| WSH2–4–1ATS 4–3 (A 2–1)@PHI2–6ATS 1–7 (H 0–4) | Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET | — | PHI -6 | — | — | O/U 43.5 | Out: PHI WR B. Covey (knee) · Out: PHI WR D. Smith (hamstring) | Like: PHI -6 · loss (−1u) Total: Under 43.5 · loss (−1u) Final: WSH 22–24 PHI |
| ARI3–5ATS 4–4 (A 4–1)@LAC0–7ATS 0–6–1 (H 0–3) | Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET | — | LAC -8.5 | — | — | O/U 47.5 | Out: LAC WR B. Thompson (quadriceps) · Out: LAC CB D. Jackson (hamstring) | Lock: ARI +8.5 · win (+1.82u) Total: Under 47.5 · win (+1.82u) Final: ARI 26–14 LAC |
| DAL3–5ATS 3–4–1 (A 2–2)@NYG4–2–1ATS 5–2 (H 3–1) | Sun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM ET | — | NYG +3 | — | — | O/U 47.5 | Out: DAL WR K. Turpin (ribs) · Out: DAL TE L. Schoonmaker (groin) | Like: NYG +3 · win (+0.91u) Total: Under 47.5 · loss (−1u) Final: DAL 20–28 NYG |
| DEN6–2ATS 6–2 (A 2–2)@KC5–2ATS 3–4 (H 2–1) | Mon, Sep 14, 8:15 PM ET | — | KC -2.5 | — | — | O/U 42.5 | Out: KC CB M. Delane (shoulder) | Like: KC -2.5 · win (+0.91u) Total: Under 42.5 · win (+0.91u) Final: DEN 10–31 KC |
Week 1 Graded Picks (Open vs. Close Line Movement)
| Matchup | Mark | Open Line | Pick (vs Close) | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN @ KC | Like | — | KC -2.5 | DEN 10–31 KC | win (+0.91u) |
| DEN @ KC | Total | — | Under 42.5 | DEN 10–31 KC | win (+0.91u) |
| DAL @ NYG | Like | — | NYG +3 | DAL 20–28 NYG | win (+0.91u) |
| DAL @ NYG | Total | — | Under 47.5 | DAL 20–28 NYG | loss (−1u) |
| ARI @ LAC | Lock | — | ARI +8.5 | ARI 26–14 LAC | win (+1.82u) |
| MIA @ LV | Like | — | LV -3 | MIA 13–27 LV | win (+0.91u) |
| WSH @ PHI | Like | — | PHI -6 | WSH 22–24 PHI | loss (−1u) |
| ARI @ LAC | Total | — | Under 47.5 | ARI 26–14 LAC | win (+1.82u) |
| MIA @ LV | Total | — | Under 40.5 | MIA 13–27 LV | win (+0.91u) |
| WSH @ PHI | Total | — | Under 43.5 | WSH 22–24 PHI | loss (−1u) |
| ATL @ PIT | Like | — | PIT -6.5 | ATL 13–20 PIT | win (+0.91u) |
| BAL @ IND | Like | — | BAL -3 | BAL 41–23 IND | win (+0.91u) |
| BUF @ HOU | Like | — | BUF -1.5 | BUF 36–31 HOU | win (+0.91u) |
| CHI @ CAR | Like | — | CAR +3 | CHI 59–37 CAR | loss (−1u) |
| CLE @ JAX | Like | — | CLE +8.5 | CLE 10–34 JAX | loss (−1.5u) |
| NO @ DET | Like | — | NO +7 | NO 30–31 DET | win (+1.36u) |
| TB @ CIN | Like | — | CIN -3.5 | TB 27–33 CIN | win (+0.91u) |
| ATL @ PIT | Total | — | Under 40.5 | ATL 13–20 PIT | win (+0.91u) |
| BAL @ IND | Total | — | Under 48.5 | BAL 41–23 IND | loss (−1u) |
| BUF @ HOU | Total | — | Under 44.5 | BUF 36–31 HOU | loss (−1u) |
| CHI @ CAR | Total | — | Under 47.5 | CHI 59–37 CAR | loss (−1u) |
| CLE @ JAX | Total | — | Under 40.5 | CLE 10–34 JAX | loss (−1.5u) |
| NO @ DET | Total | — | Under 49.5 | NO 30–31 DET | loss (−1.5u) |
| TB @ CIN | Total | — | Under 50.5 | TB 27–33 CIN | loss (−1u) |
| SF @ LAR | Like | — | SF +3.5 | SF 27–7 LAR | win (+0.91u) |
| SF @ LAR | Total | — | Under 47.5 | SF 27–7 LAR | win (+0.91u) |
| NE @ SEA | Like | — | NE +3 | NE 10–13 SEA | push (0u) |
| NE @ SEA | Total | — | Under 44.5 | NE 10–13 SEA | win (+0.91u) |