The NFL Ticket · Closing-Line League Dataset
2026 NFL Team ATS & Over/Under Records Graded Against the Closing Line
Across 120 settled games in the 2026 NFL regular season graded against the closing line, NFL home teams are 52-61-7 ATS (road teams 61-52-7 ATS) and league-wide game totals are 62-58 (Over–Under–Push). Top ATS cover leaders: DEN (6-2 ATS, 75.0%), PIT (6-2 ATS, 75.0%), LV (6-2 ATS, 75.0%). Compare league-wide cover rates with our Week 8 active spread & injury board, verified 2026 track record, free NFL pick & 2-week (14-day) email trial, and $9.99 one-time Season Pass (21+, entertainment only, no pick is ever guaranteed).
Settled 2026 Games
120
Graded vs. kickoff close
Home Teams ATS
52-61-7
Against closing spread
Road Teams ATS
61-52-7
Against closing spread
League Over–Under
62-58
Over–Under–Push vs. Close
All 32 NFL Teams · 2026 ATS & Over/Under Standings
Sorted by ATS Cover % against the closing line. Includes home/away ATS splits and Over/Under records.
| Team | Division | GP | SU (W-L) | Overall ATS | Cover % | Home ATS | Away ATS | O-U-P | Over % | Avg Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN Denver Broncos | AFC West | 8 | 6-2 | 6-2 | 75.0% | 4-0 | 2-2 | 3-5 | 37.5% | +0.9 |
| PIT Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC North | 8 | 6-2 | 6-2 | 75.0% | 4-0 | 2-2 | 4-4 | 50.0% | +4.5 |
| LV Las Vegas Raiders | AFC West | 8 | 4-4 | 6-2 | 75.0% | 3-1 | 3-1 | 6-2 | 75.0% | -1.1 |
| BUF Buffalo Bills | AFC East | 7 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 71.4% | 3-1 | 2-1 | 5-2 | 71.4% | +7.4 |
| CHI Chicago Bears | NFC North | 7 | 5-2 | 5-2 | 71.4% | 3-1 | 2-1 | 3-4 | 42.9% | +5.3 |
| NYG New York Giants | NFC East | 7 | 4-2-1 | 5-2 | 71.4% | 3-1 | 2-1 | 5-2 | 71.4% | +0.3 |
| CLE Cleveland Browns | AFC North | 8 | 5-3 | 5-3 | 62.5% | 3-0 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 50.0% | -4.3 |
| MIN Minnesota Vikings | NFC North | 7 | 6-1 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 1-2 | 3-1 | 1-6 | 14.3% | +6.7 |
| SF San Francisco 49ers | NFC West | 7 | 6-1 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 2-2 | 2-1 | 3-4 | 42.9% | +8.3 |
| JAX Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC South | 7 | 5-2 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 3-2 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 42.9% | +12.1 |
| GB Green Bay Packers | NFC North | 8 | 5-3 | 4-3-1 | 57.1% | 3-1 | 1-2-1 | 2-6 | 25.0% | +0.9 |
| WSH Washington Commanders | NFC East | 7 | 2-4-1 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 2-2 | 2-1 | 4-3 | 57.1% | -3.3 |
| CIN Cincinnati Bengals | AFC North | 7 | 5-2 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 1-2 | 2-1-1 | 5-2 | 71.4% | +6.9 |
| NE New England Patriots | AFC East | 8 | 5-3 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 2-0-1 | 1-3-1 | 5-3 | 62.5% | +2.8 |
| LAR Los Angeles Rams | NFC West | 8 | 4-4 | 4-4 | 50.0% | 2-3 | 2-1 | 4-4 | 50.0% | +3.3 |
| ARI Arizona Cardinals | NFC West | 8 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 50.0% | 0-3 | 4-1 | 5-3 | 62.5% | -7.9 |
| IND Indianapolis Colts | AFC South | 8 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 50.0% | 1-2 | 3-2 | 5-3 | 62.5% | -7.6 |
| NYJ New York Jets | AFC East | 8 | 2-6 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 2-2 | 1-1-2 | 4-4 | 50.0% | -2.3 |
| MIA Miami Dolphins | AFC East | 7 | 1-6 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 1-1-1 | 2-2 | 4-3 | 57.1% | -9.1 |
| TEN Tennessee Titans | AFC South | 8 | 1-7 | 4-4 | 50.0% | 1-3 | 3-1 | 4-4 | 50.0% | -6.9 |
| KC Kansas City Chiefs | AFC West | 7 | 5-2 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 2-1 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 42.9% | +5.1 |
| CAR Carolina Panthers | NFC South | 7 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3-4 | 42.9% | -2.1 |
| DAL Dallas Cowboys | NFC East | 8 | 3-5 | 3-4-1 | 42.9% | 1-2-1 | 2-2 | 6-2 | 75.0% | +0.8 |
| TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC South | 8 | 3-5 | 3-4-1 | 42.9% | 1-3-1 | 2-1 | 4-4 | 50.0% | +3.4 |
| NO New Orleans Saints | NFC South | 7 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 0-4 | 3-0 | 4-3 | 57.1% | -4.6 |
| SEA Seattle Seahawks | NFC West | 7 | 4-3 | 2-3-2 | 40.0% | 1-1-2 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 42.9% | +6.1 |
| ATL Atlanta Falcons | NFC South | 8 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 37.5% | 1-3 | 2-2 | 4-4 | 50.0% | -2.3 |
| DET Detroit Lions | NFC North | 7 | 5-2 | 2-4-1 | 33.3% | 1-2-1 | 1-2 | 5-2 | 71.4% | +3.3 |
| BAL Baltimore Ravens | AFC North | 8 | 4-4 | 2-5-1 | 28.6% | 0-3 | 2-2-1 | 4-4 | 50.0% | -3.0 |
| HOU Houston Texans | AFC South | 7 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 28.6% | 0-4 | 2-1 | 4-3 | 57.1% | -0.7 |
| PHI Philadelphia Eagles | NFC East | 8 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 12.5% | 0-4 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 50.0% | -8.1 |
| LAC Los Angeles Chargers | AFC West | 7 | 0-7 | 0-6-1 | 0.0% | 0-3 | 0-3-1 | 1-6 | 14.3% | -10.9 |
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2026 NFL ATS Trends Frequently Asked Questions
- How are 2026 NFL team ATS and Over/Under records graded on this page?
- Every settled 2026 NFL game is graded against the consensus sportsbook closing spread and closing total captured at official game kickoff. A team covers when its final score plus its closing spread exceeds the opponent's score; exact ties on whole-number spreads or totals are recorded as pushes.
- What is the breakeven ATS cover percentage in the NFL?
- At standard -110 sportsbook vig (risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 unit), a bettor must win 52.38% of decided point-spread or total bets to break even. Teams and models covering above 52.4% against the closing line generate positive return on investment.
- How do team ATS trends compare to The NFL Ticket's weekly Locks and Likes?
- Raw season-long ATS records show how the betting market has priced each franchise to date, whereas The NFL Ticket prices each individual matchup against the live consensus line, key numbers (3 and 7), and nflverse starter injury data. You can audit every graded Lock (1.5u) and Like (1.0u) on /record.
- Why do key numbers 3 and 7 matter for NFL ATS trends and pushes?
- Roughly 15% of NFL games land on a final margin of 3 points (a field goal) and roughly 9% land on 7 points (a converted touchdown). Teams priced on whole numbers like -3 or -7 experience significantly more ATS pushes than teams priced on half-point hooks like -2.5 or -3.5.