2026 NFL Totals Hub · Graded vs. Pre-Kickoff Closing Line
2026 NFL Over/Under Picks & Verified Totals Track Record
The NFL Ticket is 27–26–0 (50.9%, −1.55u) on 2026 NFL Over/Under totals picks across 53 graded totals plays (and 55–35–4, 61.1%, +17.13u overall across all 94 graded ATS and totals plays), with every win, loss, and push graded at flat 1.0u stakes (-110 vig) against the consensus pre-kickoff closing line and independently verified on Veri.bet, TrustMyRecord, War Room Picks, and our public JSON audit feed (21+, entertainment only, no pick is ever guaranteed).
2026 NFL Over/Under Totals Key Performance Indicators
2026 Totals Record
27–26–0
50.9% win rate · 53 graded O/U plays
Totals Net Units
−1.55u
1.0u flat stake · -2.9% ROI at -110
Overall Combined
55–35–4
+17.13u net · ATS 28–9–4 (+18.68u)
Min Model Total Edge
2.5+ pts
Overs 5–3 · Unders 22–23
Week 8 NFL Over/Under Totals Board & Line Movement
Opening vs. current/closing consensus Over/Under totals, line movement, and injury/weather notes for every Week 8 matchup. Unkicked member Over/Under plays remain locked until official game kickoff.
| Matchup | Kickoff (PT) | Open Total | Current / Close Total | Total Move | Weather / Pace / Injury Note | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CAR @ GB | Thu, Oct 29, 5:15 PM PT | O/U 47.5 | O/U 47.5 | 0.0 | Out: CAR QB H. King (coach's decision) · Out: CAR RB A. Dillon (coach's decision) · CAR on ~4.3 days rest | Member Card (Locked until kickoff) |
BAL @ BUF BAL 10–36 BUF | Sun, Nov 1, 10:00 AM PT | O/U 53.5 | O/U 55.5 | +2.0 (Over move) | Out: BAL QB L. Jackson (thumb) · Out: BUF CB D. Alford (ankle) · BUF on ~13.9 days rest | Over 55.5 · LOSS (−1u) |
TEN @ CIN | Sun, Nov 1, 10:00 AM PT | O/U 47.5 | O/U 46.5 | -1.0 (Under move) | Out: TEN WR C. Tate (shoulder) · Out: TEN CB J. Jones (knee) | Member Card (Locked until kickoff) |
ARI @ DAL ARI 33–30 DAL | Sun, Nov 1, 10:00 AM PT | O/U 52.5 | O/U 54.5 | +2.0 (Over move) | Out: DAL WR K. Turpin (ribs) · Out: DAL TE L. Schoonmaker (groin) · DAL on ~5.7 days rest | Pass (No total play) |
MIN @ DET MIN 15–19 DET | Sun, Nov 1, 10:00 AM PT | O/U 46.5 | O/U 46 | -0.5 (Under move) | Q: MIN QB K. Murray (hamstring) | Pass (No total play) |
LV @ NYJ | Sun, Nov 1, 10:00 AM PT | O/U 44.5 | O/U 46.5 | +2.0 (Over move) | Out: NYJ RB B. Hall (quadriceps) · Out: NYJ DE J. Ossai (ankle) · LV coast-to-coast at NYJ | Member Card (Locked until kickoff) |
CLE @ PIT | Sun, Nov 1, 10:00 AM PT | O/U 39.5 | O/U 39 | -0.5 (Under move) | Out: PIT CB B. Echols (hamstring) · Out: PIT WR B. Skowronek (calf) | Member Card (Locked until kickoff) |
ATL @ TB | Sun, Nov 1, 10:00 AM PT | O/U 44.5 | O/U 43 | -1.5 (Under move) | Out: ATL CB B. Bowman Jr. (hamstring) · Out: ATL RB B. Robinson Jr. (hamstring) | Member Card (Locked until kickoff) |
IND @ JAX | Sun, Nov 1, 10:00 AM PT | O/U 46.5 | O/U 45.5 | -1.0 (Under move) | Out: IND WR A. Gould (concussion) · Out: IND CB J. Walley (knee) · JAX on ~14.2 days rest | Member Card (Locked until kickoff) |
LAC @ LAR | Sun, Nov 1, 1:05 PM PT | O/U 45.5 | O/U 46 | +0.5 (Over move) | Out: LAC WR B. Thompson (quadriceps) · Out: LAC CB D. Jackson (hamstring) · LAC on ~14 days rest | Member Card (Locked until kickoff) |
KC @ DEN | Sun, Nov 1, 1:25 PM PT | O/U 41.5 | O/U 42 | +0.5 (Over move) | Out: KC CB M. Delane (shoulder) | Member Card (Locked until kickoff) |
NE @ MIA NE 24–19 MIA | Sun, Nov 1, 1:25 PM PT | O/U 44.5 | O/U 41 | -3.5 (Under move) | Out: MIA OT K. Proctor (concussion) · Out: NE WR A.J. Brown (ankle) | Under 41 · LOSS (−1u) |
PHI @ WSH | Sun, Nov 1, 5:20 PM PT | O/U 40.5 | O/U 40.5 | 0.0 | Out: PHI WR B. Covey (knee) · Out: PHI WR D. Smith (hamstring) · WSH on ~13 days rest | Member Card (Locked until kickoff) |
CHI @ SEA | Mon, Nov 2, 5:15 PM PT | O/U 46.5 | O/U 46.5 | 0.0 | Out: CHI RB K. Monangai (thumb) · Out: SEA OT C. Cross (ankle) · CHI on ~11 days rest | Member Card (Locked until kickoff) |
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Full 2026 Graded NFL Over/Under Ledger (Weeks 1–7)
Every settled 2026 NFL Over/Under pick (53 graded totals plays: 27–26–0, 50.9%, −1.55u), graded at flat 1.0u stakes (-110 vig) against the consensus closing total. Zero deleted losses.
| Week | Matchup | Side & Line Taken | Open Total | Closing Total | CLV | Final Score (Combined Pts) | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | NE @ MIA | Under 41 | O/U 44.5 | O/U 41 | +3.5 pt | NE 24–19 MIA (43 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W8 | BAL @ BUF | Over 55.5 | O/U 53.5 | O/U 55.5 | +2.0 pt | BAL 10–36 BUF (46 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W7 | GB @ DET | Over 55.5 | O/U 53 | O/U 55.5 | +2.5 pt | GB 17–20 DET (37 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W7 | LAR @ LV | Over 49.5 | O/U 47.5 | O/U 49.5 | +2.0 pt | LAR 35–21 LV (56 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W7 | CIN @ BAL | Under 46.5 | O/U 51 | O/U 46.5 | +4.5 pt | CIN 35–13 BAL (48 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W7 | NE @ CHI | Under 50.5 | — | O/U 50.5 | — | NE 24–30 CHI (54 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W6 | WSH @ SF | Under 51.5 | — | O/U 51.5 | — | WSH 17–23 SF (40 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W6 | DAL @ GB | Over 54 | — | O/U 54 | — | DAL 13–23 GB (36 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W6 | BUF @ LV | Under 54 | — | O/U 54 | — | BUF 33–30 LV (63 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W6 | LAC @ KC | Under 41.5 | — | O/U 41.5 | — | LAC 6–22 KC (28 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W6 | ARI @ LAR | Under 51.5 | — | O/U 51.5 | — | ARI 18–16 LAR (34 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W6 | BAL @ CLE | Under 39.5 | — | O/U 39.5 | — | BAL 10–13 CLE (23 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W6 | CAR @ PHI | Under 39.5 | — | O/U 39.5 | — | CAR 25–14 PHI (39 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W6 | PIT @ TB | Under 37.5 | — | O/U 37.5 | — | PIT 26–19 TB (45 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W6 | TEN @ IND | Under 43.5 | — | O/U 43.5 | — | TEN 26–20 IND (46 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W6 | SEA @ DEN | Under 40.5 | — | O/U 40.5 | — | SEA 14–17 DEN (31 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W5 | BUF @ LAR | Under 55.5 | — | O/U 55.5 | — | BUF 37–34 LAR (71 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W5 | BAL @ ATL | Under 44 | — | O/U 44 | — | BAL 30–23 ATL (53 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W5 | DET @ ARI | Under 55 | — | O/U 55 | — | DET 45–21 ARI (66 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W5 | SF @ SEA | Under 46.5 | — | O/U 46.5 | — | SF 32–29 SEA (61 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W5 | DEN @ LAC | Under 42 | — | O/U 42 | — | DEN 23–17 LAC (40 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W5 | IND @ PIT | Under 41.5 | — | O/U 41.5 | — | IND 22–34 PIT (56 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W5 | MIN @ NO | Under 41.5 | — | O/U 41.5 | — | MIN 23–13 NO (36 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W5 | NYG @ WSH | Under 41.5 | — | O/U 41.5 | — | NYG 27–27 WSH (54 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W5 | CHI @ GB | Under 47 | — | O/U 47 | — | CHI 7–31 GB (38 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W5 | PHI @ JAX | Under 41.5 | — | O/U 41.5 | — | PHI 17–19 JAX (36 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W5 | TB @ DAL | Under 49.5 | — | O/U 49.5 | — | TB 24–16 DAL (40 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W4 | DET @ CAR | Over 52.5 | — | O/U 52.5 | — | DET 26–32 CAR (58 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W4 | KC @ LV | Over 47.5 | — | O/U 47.5 | — | KC 30–27 LV (57 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W4 | LAC @ SEA | Under 43.5 | — | O/U 43.5 | — | LAC 23–30 SEA (53 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W4 | ARI @ NYG | Under 44.5 | — | O/U 44.5 | — | ARI 24–36 NYG (60 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W4 | NYJ @ CHI | Under 43.5 | — | O/U 43.5 | — | NYJ 12–23 CHI (35 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W4 | TEN @ BAL | Under 42.5 | — | O/U 42.5 | — | TEN 18–24 BAL (42 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W4 | IND @ WSH | Under 46.5 | — | O/U 46.5 | — | IND 30–13 WSH (43 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W3 | PHI @ CHI | Under 42.5 | — | O/U 42.5 | — | PHI 7–27 CHI (34 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W3 | BAL @ DAL | Over 53.5 | — | O/U 53.5 | — | BAL 34–31 DAL (65 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W3 | MIN @ TB | Under 42.5 | — | O/U 42.5 | — | MIN 23–16 TB (39 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W3 | NYJ @ DET | Over 49.5 | — | O/U 49.5 | — | NYJ 24–31 DET (55 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W3 | SEA @ WSH | Under 33 | — | O/U 33 | — | SEA 31–33 WSH (64 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W1 | DEN @ KC | Under 42.5 | — | O/U 42.5 | — | DEN 10–31 KC (41 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W1 | DAL @ NYG | Under 47.5 | — | O/U 47.5 | — | DAL 20–28 NYG (48 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W1 | ARI @ LAC | Under 47.5 | — | O/U 47.5 | — | ARI 26–14 LAC (40 pts) | win | +1.82u |
| W1 | MIA @ LV | Under 40.5 | — | O/U 40.5 | — | MIA 13–27 LV (40 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W1 | WSH @ PHI | Under 43.5 | — | O/U 43.5 | — | WSH 22–24 PHI (46 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W1 | ATL @ PIT | Under 40.5 | — | O/U 40.5 | — | ATL 13–20 PIT (33 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W1 | BAL @ IND | Under 48.5 | — | O/U 48.5 | — | BAL 41–23 IND (64 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W1 | BUF @ HOU | Under 44.5 | — | O/U 44.5 | — | BUF 36–31 HOU (67 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W1 | CHI @ CAR | Under 47.5 | — | O/U 47.5 | — | CHI 59–37 CAR (96 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W1 | CLE @ JAX | Under 40.5 | — | O/U 40.5 | — | CLE 10–34 JAX (44 pts) | loss | −1.5u |
| W1 | NO @ DET | Under 49.5 | — | O/U 49.5 | — | NO 30–31 DET (61 pts) | loss | −1.5u |
| W1 | TB @ CIN | Under 50.5 | — | O/U 50.5 | — | TB 27–33 CIN (60 pts) | loss | −1u |
| W1 | SF @ LAR | Under 47.5 | — | O/U 47.5 | — | SF 27–7 LAR (34 pts) | win | +0.91u |
| W1 | NE @ SEA | Under 44.5 | — | O/U 44.5 | — | NE 10–13 SEA (23 pts) | win | +0.91u |
NFL Totals Key Numbers (37, 41, 43, 44, 47, 51) & Bet-Now vs. Wait-for-Close Timing
Just like NFL point spreads cluster around 3 and 7, NFL combined final scores cluster around 37, 41, 43, 44, 47, and 51 because scoring is built from 7-point converted touchdowns and 3-point field goals. Our desk requires at least a 2.5+ point model total edge before firing a 1.0u Over/Under play, and weights half-point moves across these six key totals far more heavily than dead numbers.
| Key Total | Common Final Scores | Scoring Structure | Bet-Now vs. Wait-for-Close Timing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 20–17, 21–16, 24–13 | 3 TDs + 5 FGs (or 4 TDs + 3 FGs) | Low-total defensive or outdoor wind games cluster heavily at 37. Bet Under 37.5 before it drops to 37 or 36.5; wait on Over 37 until pre-kickoff if books shade to 36.5. |
| 41 | 24–17, 21–20, 27–14 | 5 TDs + 2 FGs | 24–17 is one of the single most frequent final scores in the NFL. Never lay Over 41.5 when 41 is available, and lock in Under 41.5 early before weather or injury news pushes the total down through 41. |
| 43 | 23–20, 26–17, 30–13 | 4 TDs + 5 FGs | High-field-goal dome and indoor games frequently land on 43 (23–20). Crossing between 42.5 and 43.5 swings push/win probability significantly. |
| 44 | 24–20, 27–17, 30–14 | 5 TDs + 3 FGs | 44 is the median modern NFL key total (24–20 and 27–17). Bet Over 43.5 early in the week before public Over action inflates the line across 44 to 44.5. |
| 47 | 27–20, 24–23, 30–17 | 5 TDs + 4 FGs (or 6 TDs + 1 FG + safety/2pt) | 27–20 is the signature high-tier quarterback score. When our model projects an Under on a marquee game near 47, waiting until late week often yields Under 47.5 after public money steams the Over. |
| 51 | 27–24, 31–20, 34–17 | 6 TDs + 3 FGs | Shootout totals cluster around 51 (27–24 and 31–20). Above 51, variance increases and late-game kneel-downs frequently kill Over 51.5 tickets on 31–20 or 27–24 finals. |
When to Bet Overs Early (Tuesday–Thursday)
Recreational bettors overwhelmingly bet Overs on prime-time and high-profile quarterback matchups. When our model projects an Over on an opener sitting below a key total like 40.5, 43.5, or 46.5, locking in early captures positive Closing Line Value (CLV) before public steam pushes the line across 41, 44, or 47.
When to Bet Unders Early vs. Waiting for Close
When sharp weather models flag sustained 15+ mph crosswinds, heavy precipitation, or cluster offensive-line/QB injuries (tracked via our CC-BY-4.0 nflverse pipeline), bet Unders immediately before the total drops through 44, 41, or 37. In clean-weather dome games where the public is steaming an Over, waiting until Sunday morning often buys an extra half-point above 47 or 51.
How Our 2026 NFL Over/Under Track Record Is Verified
Every NFL Over/Under total and point-spread pick on The NFL Ticket freezes automatically at official game kickoff and grades against the consensus sportsbook closing line at -110 vig. Our 2026 record (Totals 27–26, Overall 55–35–4, +17.13u) is independently audited across four public verification feeds:
- Veri.bet Public Audit (veri.bet/nflpicks.live) ↗
Automated pick-auditor ingestion of our timestamped pre-kickoff locks, likes, and totals.
- TrustMyRecord (@JimboBet) ↗
Third-party sportsbook monitor where paid plays lock hidden-until-kickoff and reveal automatically once play begins.
- War Room Picks (warroompicks.com/c/jimbobet) ↗
Public handicapper leaderboard tracking our weekly free picks with immutable pre-game timestamps.
- Machine-Readable JSON Audit Feed (/api/pickauditor-feed) →
Live SHA-256 hashed JSON feed of every settled 2026 spread and total pick for independent verification.
Frequently Asked Questions: NFL Over/Under Totals Picks
- What is The NFL Ticket's 2026 NFL Over/Under (Totals) record?
- Every 2026 NFL Over/Under pick on The NFL Ticket is tracked live on this page and on /record, staked at a flat 1.0u at standard -110 vig and graded strictly against the consensus pre-kickoff closing total — with every win, loss, and push included and zero deleted losses.
- What edge does the model require before posting an NFL Over or Under pick?
- Our model requires at least a 2.5-point gap between our projected game total and the consensus sportsbook total before recommending an Over or Under (1.0u Like), with additional weighting when the move crosses a key NFL total number (37, 41, 43, 44, 47, or 51). Games inside 2.5 points are marked Pass.
- What are the most important key numbers in NFL Over/Under totals betting?
- Because NFL scoring is built from 7-point touchdowns and 3-point field goals, combined final scores cluster around 37 (20–17), 41 (24–17), 43 (23–20), 44 (24–20), 47 (27–20), and 51 (27–24). Half-point moves across 41, 44, or 47 carry disproportionate win-probability value.
- How are The NFL Ticket's Over/Under picks verified?
- Every total pick freezes at official game kickoff, is graded against the consensus sportsbook closing line, and is independently verified across Veri.bet (https://veri.bet/nflpicks.live), TrustMyRecord (https://trustmyrecord.com/u/JimboBet/), War Room Picks (https://warroompicks.com/c/jimbobet), and our public JSON audit feed (/api/pickauditor-feed).